Future Studies on Raising total Fertility Rate policies in Iran based on Scenario method

Abstract

Abstract Introduction: The problem of reducing the fertility rate in Iran during the recent decades and also formulating appropriate policies to raise it to the desired level has always been one of the main challenges of the policy makers. Future research is an approach that provides the possibility of creating a scenario and image of the future, and based on this, it is possible to provide solutions to achieve the desired result. Aim:.The aim of this study is to Future Studies on Raising total Fertility Rate policies in Iran based on Scenario method Materials and methods: The present prospective study is a multi-stage combined study that was conducted sequentially using scenario and modeling methods. The studied horizon is up to the next 10 years. Using a systematic review and experts' opinion, effective drivers in fertility have been determined. Critical uncertainties were drawn in the form of two-dimensional ratings of "effect level" and "uncertainty level". Three probable, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios were selected with the opinion of experts and the story of each scenario was compiled. Policy solutions were prioritized and selected with the opinion of experts. Results:106 key drivers were identified. 9 factors with high uncertainty and high impact potential, which were categorized into two categories: socio-political developments and economic situation. Finally, four scenarios were compiled. Scenario 3 (blue swamp) and then scenario 2 (danger alarm) got the most credit. White situation scenario as an optimistic scenario, blue swamp scenario as a pessimistic scenario and alarm scenario as possible scenarios have been selected. Suitable policy solutions for the possible scenario include getting the support of non-governmental organizations and charities and using the power of the private and non-governmental sector to provide services. Fertility is in all regions of the country. Conclusion:Policy makers can overcome the reduction of the fertility rate below the replacement level with the help of the findings of this study with a clear and clear understanding of the factors influencing the formation of pessimistic, probable and optimistic scenarios and investment and use of the policy solutions provided for each scenario in Evidence-based decision-making processes and the adoption of population policies, design efficient and effective interventions. Keywords: Future research, policy, fertility rate scenario, driver