Futures studies on the prevention of heart attack in Iran

Abstract

Abstract Introduction: It is better to use different methods of future study to take effective policies in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. Aim: The aim of this study is to future study on myocardial infarction prevention policies using scenario and modeling methods. materials and methods :The present study is a multi-stage combined study that has been conducted sequentially. The horizon studied has been until 2025. Scenario and modeling methods have been used. First, effective reviews of myocardial infarction were determined using systematic review and expert’s opinion.Critical uncertainties were plotted in two dimensions: "effect level" and "uncertainty level". 3 possible, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios were developed with the opinion of specific experts and the story of each scenario. In the next step, modeling was performed with artificial neural network model. It was used to formulate policy solutions and options from the experts' point of view and hierarchical analysis to prioritize the results. Results: 98 key drivers were classified. 11 factors with high uncertainty and high impact potential that were classified into three categories: political developments, access to health services, and self-care. Finally, six scenarios were developed. The cage bird scenario and the fear and hope scenario gained the most validity. According to experts, the smooth path scenario has been selected as the optimistic scenario, the fear and hope scenario as the pessimistic scenario and the flying scenario in the cage of the probable scenario. Appropriate policy options for the possible scenario include the use of NGOs and charities and strengthening health-related restrictive. Conclusion:Foresight is useful and effective in identifying effective drivers, key uncertainties, and mapping out a probable future for evidence-aware policy. Despite the declining death toll from heart attacks in the future, we need policy interventions with extensive cross-sectoral cooperation and a coherent framework to achieve national and international goals.