Predictive evaluation of Framingham and Globorisk ten-years risk assessment tools for cardiovascular events on frailty in the elderly population of Tabriz

Abstract

Introduction and Objective :Cardiovascular diseases are the most common diseases among the elderly. Various studies show the relationship between fraility and risk factors for heart diseases. In this descriptive-analytical study, the predictive value of ten-year risk assessment tools of Framingham and Globorisk disease events was carried out on the fraility of the elderly population of Tabriz city. Method: The method of the present study is a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2014 and 2014 on 1026 elderly people aged 60 years and older without cardiovascular disease and having health records in the health centers of Tabriz city by simple random sampling method. The tools used in this study are the Framingham risk assessment tool, the Globorisk tool, and the fraility questionnaire. Framingham and Globorisk scores were obtained from the data recorded in the electronic system of Sib, and the fraility questionnaire was completed during face-to-face interviews or telephone calls with the elderly. Stata Version 17 and SPSS STATISTICS 27 software were used to analyze the data. Results: For each unit increase in the Framingham risk score, the chance of pre-fraility and fraility increases by 6%. By controlling the confounding factors, there were only minor reducing effects, which are statistically significant. In terms of classification of risk scores, people who are in Framingham's intermediate risk and high risk score category, the chances of pre-fraility and fraility have increased by 2.4 and 8.54 times, respectively, which had a statistically significant relationship and with the adjustment of confounders. The odds ratio in intermediate and high-risk categories reached 1.85 and 4.76, which was statistically significant. The results of the investigation on the Globorisk score showed that for each unit increase in the Globorisk score, the chance of being placed in the pre-fraility and fraility category increases by 6%, and this relationship is statistically significant, and with the adjustment of the confounders, the odds ratio It decreased to 4%, which is statistically significant. However, no statistically significant relationships were observed in the Globorisk risk score classification. Conclusion: CVD risk factors are related fraility, this study showed that Framingham's ten-year risk assessment tool for cardiovascular events is a suitable predictor for pre-fraility and fraility events, but Globorisk tool could not predict this situation in the elderlyConsidering that this study is one of the first research studies in the field of predicting Framingham and Globorisk risk assessment tools on pre-fraility and fraility of the elderly, more comprehensive studies are needed in this field.