Design a model to predict the hospital mortality of admitted patients with Covid-19

Abstract

The clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infection is very broad and includes asymptomatic infection, discomfort of the upper respiratory system, and in some cases acute and severe fatal infections. The level of infectivity is one of the main factors for assessing the severity of the disease, but the death rate due to covid-19 is not correctly estimated due to the lack of follow-up of patients with mild and moderate disease. This study aimed to design a predictive mortality model in patients admitted with Covid-19. Materials and Methods: This study was a descriptive and analytical study that included 1000 patients with Covid-19 with positive PCR admitted in the ward or ICU in the Imam Reza (AS) and Sina Medical Education Center affiliated to Tabriz University of Medical Sciences. The required variables were collected and the outcome of the patients was as death and survival, and the variables were compared based on the outcome of the patients. Results: 1000 patients with Covid 19 referred to Imam Reza, and Sina hospitals in Tabriz were studied. The average age of the patients was 56.34 years, and 65.7% of the patients were male. Significantly, the mean age of dead patients was high (59.36±18.40 vs. 59.36±17.68; p=0.001), and most male patients died (71.6% vs. 28.4%; p=0.011). Evaluation of clinical signs also showed that the level of SPO2 was significantly lower in deceased patients (84.41±8.17 vs. 90.03±4.77; p=0.001). Comparison of patients' paraclinical findings also showed that WBC (8.27±7.71 vs. 7.53±5.29; p=0.009), neutrophils (81.68±9.90 vs. 78.93±12.19; p=0.001), ALT (60.81±66.04 vs. 46.11±47.48; p=0.001), AST (56.46±75.00 vs. 41.73±38.55; p=0.001), creatinine (1.56±1.34 vs. 1.23±12.1; p=0.001) and urea (62.85±54.98 vs. 42.98±32.62; p=0.001) was higher in dead patients.