The scenarios of future Home Health Care (HHC) on the horizon of

Abstract

Abstract Introduction: The changing needs of society have augmented people's desire to be much more independent and receive care services at home. In this sense, home health care (HHC) is assumed as one of the key components in achieving this goal. Some promotions in supply chain management and the high-quality delivery of this industry typically entails governance reforms and structural changes in service management. Such changes target the main organizational dimensions and institutional aspects of management systems. Therefore, this futures study was to forecast HHC transformation, utilizing a holistic and interdisciplinary approach to the major forces of change. Besides, this study aimed to define the scenarios facing HHC over a 20-year horizon in order to prepare it for confrontation with various options that are possible or probable in the future. Method: Using exploratory-normative methods, this futures study was fulfilled in 2021-22. The participants included nurses working in the field of HHC, recipients of HHC services, and experts in nursing, health, HHC, futures research, marketing, and management. The study was implemented in three steps: (1) environmental scanning (viz., employing text reviews, interviews, evaluations of trends and events, and panels of experts to understand opportunities, threats, and challenges), (2) scenario writing, and (3) consensus summarization (namely, using panels of experts and expertise group meetings to reach collective agreements among the key stakeholders, develop some policies and strategies, and ultimately publish the study results). Results: A total number of 95 effective factors were initially identified in this study, but then 11 cases were labeled as the key factors shaping the futures of HHC. According to the expert opinions, three factors were selected as the main propellers, i.e., governance status, technology prevalence-penetration in society, and economic conditions in a country, with two uncertainty states. Based on the interaction effects chart, the panel of experts mined the logic of the scenarios, and consequently selected three cases, viz. industry monopoly, one step forward-two steps back, and smart home, as the possible (or strong) scenarios. Conclusion: It is concluded that one of the three scenarios of industry monopoly, one step forward-two steps back, and smart home is more likely than other cases ahead in the next 20 years, so taking account of the possible futures identified, some planning is needed to achieve the most favorable scenario in the future and upgrade the HHC industry in a country. In addition, the study results can pave the grounds for policy-making and strategy design among HHC managers. In general, it is suggested to establish an observatory for HHC to provide a futuristic review of this valuable care service. Other studies are also recommended to look at the futures of HHC via different methodologies. All the ideas proposed in this futures study can be the topic of further detailed research to produce specific operational strategies and support the policies developed in the field of HHC.